Image by Matthew Hynds

By Matthew Hynds

So, the proposed cuts to the Personal Independence Payments, as laid out in the chancellor’s budget just a few days ago, have been dropped. This tyre-smoking u-turn is even more dramatic than last year’s, when Osborne ditched his planned cuts to tax credits. On that occasion, he was able to use a £27 billion windfall to the treasury as the means of paying for it, and to afford him some dignity in retreat. This was the result of higher-than-expected tax revenues, and lower interest rates on government debt.

Image by Matthew Hynds
This time, there is no surprise pot of cash to mitigate or distract from the chancellor’s blunder.
Had the cuts to PIP gone ahead, they would have robbed up to 700,000 disabled people of as much as £100 per week, based upon the level of support they need to have a basic standard of life.
The government had calculated that a proportion of claimants were receiving more money than they were entitled to, so it was happy to punish all claimants – comprising some of the most vulnerable people in society – for those erroneous benefit calculations.
The idea was outrageous, and – following predictably bad publicity, an outcry from disabled charities, and staunch opposition from all corners of the Commons (including the Tories’ own ranks) – Osborne bowed to the inevitable, and ditched the idea.
Last week, the work and pensions secretary, Iain Duncan Smith, resigned his post, citing the cuts to disability benefits as his reason for leaving the government front bench. Cynics have pointed out that he has presided over some questionable measures already during his time in the job, such as the notorious benefits-to-work programme, which forced claimants of job seekers’ allowance to work for free, on pain of losing their benefits. The High Court eventually ruled that the policy contravened the Convention on Human Rights.
His decision to leave the government front bench may or may not have had something to do with his desire to also leave the EU – a position that puts him at odds with the prime minister and the chancellor.
Regardless, the forthcoming EU referendum poses a massive headache for the government, and for David Cameron in particular. Let us not forget, Cameron made his pledge back in January 2013, when UKIP were at their electoral zenith, having won 27% of the vote in the European elections. At that time they looked very dangerous indeed, and Cameron was worried that they might deprive him of an overall majority. So he thought he would blunt their teeth, by trumpeting a referendum on membership of the EU.
Since then, UKIP have deflated, and the Tories have been left with this clucking, spitting albatross, which is threatening to tear the party in two.
The EU referendum, along with the miscalculations over welfare reform, are self-inflicted wounds.
And here’s another: David Cameron’s promise to step down as PM before the 2020 election.
Remember that? Another unforced error. Now, these mistakes are converging, creating a perfect storm for the government – and Cameron in particular.
Consider this: the divisions that have always existed within the party over Europe are cracked wide open. Senior figures now stand in opposing camps, and the in-fighting will only intensify. If the country votes to leave, Cameron is finished and even if the UK stays in the EU, the party may find itself substantially weakened, because of the open rivalries that will have emerged between those senior figures – particularly those with leadership ambitions.
The reputation for competence that the party once had – which was central to its appeal with the public – has been seriously undermined by the chancellor’s latest blunder, when viewed in the context of his previous mistakes.
All of this should be very, very good news for Labour – and Labour must capitalise on it. Without question – this is a test for Corbyn and his front rank. If they are not able to make lasting political capital out of the government’s current woes then there is no hope for them.
Corbyn himself must be more forceful and vociferous in his condemnation of the government. Last Wednesday’s PMQs saw him on good form, when he responded to Osborne’s budget announcement. His blood was up, the conviction was there, and he was not too absorbed in his prepared notes.
He needs to show some steel now, because the Tories think they can get away with any political maneuver they like. Quite apart from being bad for democracy, this signals contempt for Her Majesty’s Opposition.
Not for the first time in this parliament, Labour finds itself in front of an open goal. The pressure is on not to miss.